Benfica
Full time
6 – 1
HeartsD
Filed 23:09 UTC · locked in with the confirmed lineups
Lineups confirmed Settled · SharpCast Pick Won
HeartsFiled 23:09 UTC · locked in with the confirmed lineups
Benfica are heavily favoured in expected chances at 3.15 goals against Heart Of Midlothian's 0.79, yet the away side retain modest scoring potential; both teams to score rates at 49 percent, a little above the market's 44 percent.
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
The same-game multi for this fixture, built from its own picks and priced for correlation, is a Pro feature.
The higher-odds build for this fixture, reaching for 20/1 or more from supported legs, is a Pro feature.
3.9 expected goals · most likely total 3 · an open, high scoring game
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
Appointment confirmed. SharpCast has no settled match history for this official yet, so the profile builds as they officiate. Card strictness is not yet part of the model.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.
model probability · fair price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.